The Mantle of a Prophet by Mark Stoddard

With the sustaining of Thomas Monson as President of the Church and Prophet, it is good to remember the concept of the Mantle of the Prophet. Here's a quick illustration: My friend, Michael Girilikhes who I worked for at two Los Angeles Street Scene Festivals, was a top CBS executive and started the Disney on Parade shows. He was asked by President McKay to go to Hawaii and create the entertainment for the soon to be opened Polynesian Cultural Center in Hawaii. He met with some opposition to the idea and particularly from Harold B. Lee, then an apostle. Ever the financially prudent advisor, Elder Lee feared the Center would be a financial drain on the Church and said so in a Stake Conference in Hawaii. He also criticized any move to bring "Hollywood types" into the leadership of the Center lest it become what Hollywood often becomes. However, the Center while struggling the first few years became the largest tourist attraction on Oahu, helped finance and educate thousands of students and pours millions of dollars into BYU-Hawaii. Mike notes a remarkable change in Elder Lee: "When Harold B. Lee became President of the Church, I got a call from Arthur Haycock. Would I come over? I came over, and President Lee wanted to apologized to me. He said, "There are times when you don't know all of the matters, and sometimes even our judgment is flawed." We talked for a few minutes, and then I went back to Arthur's office. I said, "I don't understand this. He was so 'these Hollywood people,' and whatever." He said, "I've seen, over all the years that I've been the secretary for different Presidents of the Church, remarkable changes happen when somebody become the President of the Church. There are things you would normally think they would have forgotten long ago, or an attitude that they had, and they just become very different."

My Experiences with President Monson

He sat down next to me in the window seat. His tall frame consumed all the space, but in his dark blue suit with a bright red tie against a crisp white shirt, he looked perfectly at ease in the cramped airplane. His broad smile never left his face as he stowed his brief case and put on his seat belt. When he had completed the flying necessities he asked me how I was doing. I replied I was fine and asked how he was doing. His smile increased as he said he was doing just fine. He was not old, although to a young teenager anyone is their forties is old. Still, his energy was infectious. I'd been planning to read and sleep but in short order I knew that wasn't going to happen. He asked me about my parents, my schooling and then hit on a subject that made his eyes sparkle even more – my Scouting. He loved scouting and hoped I did too. I'd just finished with a survival outing where I thought I would die from hunger so I wasn't too keen in my recommendations. He wanted to hear all about the trip and why, he joked, in the Arizona desert we hadn't been able to find food and water. He especially wanted to hear why I was flying from Phoenix to Salt Lake City for General Conference, and flying alone as well. When I told him my older brother was seated in the back he volunteered to switch places. I assured him the separation was fine with both brothers. He said the he too was headed to General Conference. It surprised me he would tell me that for I had known instantly who he was when he entered the plane. I knew him as an Apostle but was surprised he didn't think I would know that. His modesty impressed me, and impressing a 14 year old isn't easy. He introduced himself as Tom Monson I would guess but no doubt I only heard Elder Thomas S. Monson.As the plane landed he said how much he'd enjoyed meeting me and getting to know me. I just couldn't wait to rub it in to my brother about who I had sat next to. Such was my introduction to this apostle. His affable nature so apparent during his talks at previous General Conferences was the same in person. Not for a moment did I feel anything other than genuine interest from him. He wasn't self-impressed nor lacking in inner confidence. In the years that have followed our paths have crossed numerous times. As a missionary in Australia we had the good fortune, as missionaries all over the world do as well, to have General Authorities regularly visit us. Elder Monson was the visiting apostle one time and met with all of the Elders, Sisters, couples and Stake Missionaries in the Queensland portion of our mission. In his jovial manner he told us of his joy of meeting the missionaries at that he'd just had one amusing encounter. On his way to us he'd stopped in the Samoa. There, he said, he'd been greeted by two missionaries, Elder Reigns and Elder Storm. Their mission president was Elder Flood and his first counselor was Elder Snow. And, "I was there... Elder Monsoon!" That was 1971. More than 30 years later I met Elder Monson at a Ricks College dinner. After he had lifted up my yellow tie and said, "It's a confident businessman who can wear a yellow tie," I said, "You once visited the missionaries in Australia and told us a story about going to Samoa and being greeted by Elder Reigns..." He instantly took over the story and laughed as he recalled the incident and fully completed my story. He added some other details about not only that story but his trip to Australia.I then said, "Well, let me tell you of an incident you probably didn't know about." I then related to him that I had a lady who was investigating the Gospel who just couldn't find the answers to her prayers. She had read much of the Book of Mormon, attended church, embraced the Word of Wisdom and prayed fervently to know in her heart that God lived and that the Church was true. We tried to help her receive the prompting of the Spirit, but to no avail. Still, she persisted to investigate, read, ponder, study and pray. I suggested that maybe she ought to come to a special "fireside" and listen to an apostle of the Christ, Elder Thomas Monson. She agreed. We sat in the middle of the Kangaroo Point chapel in Brisbane, Australia that soon filled to overflowing. Elder Monson gave a typical Elder Monson talk filled with gospel stories, poems, and a cheerful countenance. Our guest soaked it all in and enjoyed it very much. Toward the end of his sermon, he stopped and said, "I feel impressed that at the end of this meeting I need to meet you. So I'd like to go back to that door and meet you. I didn't want you to think I was walking out during the closing hymn so I thought I'd better tell you now." During the closing hymn he did arise and walk to the only door leading out of the chapel. After the closing prayer people began to file out. As they passed Elder Monson he shook many hands and I could hear him plainly saying, "Thank you for coming. Good to meet you. Pleasure to be hear. Thank you for coming." Or at least words to that effect. Very pleasant, cheerful and kind. As we began to walk by him he shook my hand and said, "Good to be here with you." Then he turned and saw our investigator and stopped. He looked at her deeply and extended his hand. As he looked at her and her alone, he paused and then said, "Sister, it is true." She froze for a moment as the tears welled up in her eyes. She whispered, "Thank you" and we left. Elder Monson immediately was back to cheerfully thanking people for coming and wishing them well.I had not prompted him nor given him any reason to know who she was. As we exited to the veranda she was standing by the rail. "It is true," was all she said. She became a diligent, strong member of that ward. When I finished telling him this story he quietly stood and the smile turned to a more serious look and he said, "Thank you for telling me about this good sister. I'm glad I could help." Little did I know on that plane as a young teen or in that chapel as a missionary that Elder Monson would one day lead this Church and be the prophet for all the world, but, he has and it doesn't surprise me a bit. As the mantle of the prophet falls upon him the Church and the world will find another leader worth listening too. The heavens are not sealed but ready to pour out great blessings... if we listen.

This is just in case you're a political junkie like I am, here is my "Mark S." analysis of the Primary Election process and how it might turn out.

Democrats:

This one is fairly simple. No form of calculations shows Obama getting enough votes to win the nomination at the convention. He may, however, keep Hillary from taking the nomination on the first ballot. It places John Edwards in the king-maker position. This is a 50-50 situation at the moment. I'd still bet on Clinton but if the Clinton's keep up their gnarly backroom antics and the Dem leaders finally have their fill, it could all backfire. The number is growing for Dem leaders who once supported the Clintons but have tired from their constant meanness, petulant behavior, and position-a-minute stances.

Independents:

Bloomberg has $1 billion he's willing to spend should Obama and Huckabee get their respective nominations. He won't enter the race if it is Rudy, McCain or Mitt vs. Hillary.

Republicans:

As I calculate it, as things are-- and this is strictly if the trends continue -- the final delegate count is likely to be the following given rosy projections for Romney and Huckabee, average weighting for McCain and negative weighting to Rudy:

Giuliani Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul

30% 26% 18% 22% 3% 3% of the delegates...

giving them the following delegates

Giuliani Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul 719 615 435 523 66 77 delegates.

I did figure that Thompson would indeed pull out but his delegates remain tied to him until the first ballot. I doubt any of the others will officially pull out although the Huckster has already ground his campaign to a dead crawl. He's out of money on has irritated too many Republicans with his "amend the constitution to be in line with God's law" kind of stuff. McCain gets my vote as the one who would drop out first (he won't) ... not sure why except I see the Huckster and Mitt as being more stubborn as well as having ulterior motives for other national leadership if a Republican wins.

In that no one will have even close to the 1191 delegates to win, the Republican Convention would end up as an "open" or "brokered" convention, first we've seen in 100 years. The delegates must vote for the candidate they committed to during the state election on the first ballot. Thereafter they may vote as they wish.

My open convention scenario wonders if Rudy and Huckster don't make a VP deal for the second ballot although Thompson has been working hard to be the VP and would be better. Not with McCain because it would be known as the Undertaker Ticket. How old can you go?

Regardless, I don't see Mitt able to make any deals with anyone with the possible exception of Thompson, but he'd likely go with Rudy first.

In other words, there is no winning gambit for Mitt, Huckster or Thompson... and frankly McCain is far more of a long shot than the media makes out. As his own mother says, he has little support from the base of the GPO.

Of course if any of the others dropped out after Feb 5, that will change some of the weighting but I don't see that being of particular help to Rudy unless it was McCain.

Who wins the general election??? Too much time until then. Most polls show a 5 point difference between either Hillary or Obama and whoever the Republican is. That's just too narrow for now.

Musings on Romney

I see my Musings on Romney that I sent to a few friends is now circulating around the Internet -- in fact my kids are getting people sending them this post... but of course they left my name off of it. So, for the record, here's the original sent Nov. 28, 2007:

I just returned from Washington, DC. Spoke with a top congressional policy advisor who is also LDS. He said the vast majority of GOP congressmen are endorsing Mitt. He thought a Mitt presidency was no longer improbable, but, it is now something that "could happen."

So... I wondered, if Mitt Romney became President of the US (code name POTUS) won't we have something we've never before -- a president who goes to a specific church? All other presidents belonged to religions that didn't have tight congregational boundaries. Now, think about that:

What Ward would POTUS be in?

If you are his new Bishop, here are your top 10 questions:

1. Will you allow an inaugural ball to be held in the cultural hall? Do you mount security cameras on top of each basketball rim and have a secret service detail stationed on the stage?

2. Can you call Mitt and Ann as the Nursery Leaders... even if you really feel inspired?

3. Who is going to home teach them? Will you call someone who needs activation but may not pass the vetting and national security screening?

4. If Harry Reid and Mitt Romney are in the same High Priest group, will you need to be there to keep order?

5. Exactly how will tithing settlement work? Will the Secretary of the Treasury come too?

6. Will you be inviting the new Romney family to speak in Sacrament Meeting... and if they go a little over at what point do you ask them to sit down?

7. Will the Secret Service do a sweep of the building before each meeting? And if the Romney's always leave before Sunday School, will the Sunday School president need to interview them? If they stay, where will you hold the class?

8. Can you call the Secret Service agents to help out in Primary?

9. If you give Mitt a calling and the two Democrats in the Ward raise their hand AGAINST sustaining him - partly out of habit - does the Supreme Court need to be involved?

10. If you can't give them a calling, and they don't attend very often (for presidential stuff) will that mean they're "inactive?" If they're not active, can you give them a Temple Recommend? And if you do, can they go? Will the Secret Service have to screen the temple too?

11. If the President wants to hold Sacrament Meeting at Camp David or the White House for security reasons, is that a conflict of Church and State?

If you're assigned to be the Romney's home teacher:

1. Can you just drop by, no appointment?

2. Can you even call them for an appointment or do you have to go through the Chief of Staff?

3. Can you bring by Christmas sweets and cookies? Will they be analyzed? And for how many people - family, secret service details?

4. If you don't come can the IRS do an audit on you?

5. Will they want to do a national security background check?

6. Do you have to have a permanent companion who has been vetted? Can you just grab any teacher or priest to come to you? And what if that priest has been a little wayward. Do you need to search him first?

7. Do you have to help him move in and out of the White House?

8. If Ann Romney gets sick, are you allowed to bring in meals or at least tell the Relief Society about it?

9. What can you share with the Bishop about the Romneys?

10. Do you have to ask them about their year's supply?

11. If you get a late night call for a blessing will reporters follow you around wanting to know what was wrong and what you said?

If Mitt Romney is assigned to be YOUR home teacher,

1. Is telling the group leader you haven't been home taught a national security breech?

2. If he wants to come at the end of the month, do you accept his reason "I've been out of town"?

3. Will he drop by unannounced or will the media crews give him away?

Analysis of Democrat Primary

I analyzed the Republicans, so I ought to do the Democrats. Actually, the Democrat primary selection is a bit easier since they have no "winner take all" primaries. Delegates are selected, for the most part, on the candidates percentage of popular vote. They do have super delegates, but, that aside here is how the race COULD turn out. In looking at all of the polls for each state John Edwards sees the writing on the wall: he has no chance of winning but, neither is the path to the nomination for Clinton or Obama a sure thing. Clinton has the easier road, but, she MUST consistently get more than 47% of the vote on average. That will be tough to do. If she gets 49% in New York and 43% from California and it see-saws back and forth like that in other states, she will NOT get the required 2025 delegates needed to win. That said, it doesn't appear Clinton will get more than 47% on average, but will fall 100 or so delegates short of the goal during the primaries. That means that just like the Republicans there will be a convention where no one gets the majority on the first ballot where the candidates are required to vote for the candidate they selected in the primary. On the second ballot they are free to vote for whom they like. It could take four or five rounds before Clinton or Obama get enough, with the odds going heavily to Clinton. But... Edwards. He will likely end up with 10% of the delegates and be in a position to decide who will get the nomination. That fits the Edwards profile too... king maker if the candidate does as he wishes which is to be the VP. Bet on a brokered or open convention. Bet on Clinton. Bet on it getting VERY ugly. Clintons negatives are going to get higher. No one has ever won the presidency with such high negatives. But, there haven't been open conventions in a hundred years either.

Republicans can determine Demo candidate

Here's an interesting thought. Republicans can actually decide who the Democratic nominee will be. In the following states the Democratic primary is "open" meaning anyone from any party can vote. Because the Republican convention is most likely to be OPEN, who you vote for in the Republican primary won't matter much. A 20% shift in delegates still won't sew the nomination up for any of the candidates. Therefore, to make a difference, vote in the Democratic primaries if you live in any of the following states and vote for Obama if you wish the Republicans to win the White House. He will be a much easier candidate to beat. I've listed the states in alpha sort with their delegates. If Clinton's percentage is kept below 47% she won't have enough delegates to win and the Dem convention will be open. That very process exhausts the money, weakening the Dems in the general election. It will also raise Clinton's negatives among the population as she lashes out against Obama. It will get even uglier. Here are the states that Republicans can vote in Democratic primaries: Alabama60 Arkansas47 California441 Georgia103 Hawaii29 Idaho23 Illinois185 Indiana84 Massachusetts121 Minnesota88 Mississippi40 Missouri88 Montana24 Nebraska31 New Jersey127 North Carolina134 North Dakota21 Ohio161 Rhode Island32 South Carolina54 Tennessee85 Texas228 Utah29 Vermont23 Virginia101 Washington97 West Virginia39 Wisconsin92 2587 Mark J. Stoddard