Analysis of Democrat Primary

I analyzed the Republicans, so I ought to do the Democrats. Actually, the Democrat primary selection is a bit easier since they have no "winner take all" primaries. Delegates are selected, for the most part, on the candidates percentage of popular vote. They do have super delegates, but, that aside here is how the race COULD turn out. In looking at all of the polls for each state John Edwards sees the writing on the wall: he has no chance of winning but, neither is the path to the nomination for Clinton or Obama a sure thing. Clinton has the easier road, but, she MUST consistently get more than 47% of the vote on average. That will be tough to do. If she gets 49% in New York and 43% from California and it see-saws back and forth like that in other states, she will NOT get the required 2025 delegates needed to win. That said, it doesn't appear Clinton will get more than 47% on average, but will fall 100 or so delegates short of the goal during the primaries. That means that just like the Republicans there will be a convention where no one gets the majority on the first ballot where the candidates are required to vote for the candidate they selected in the primary. On the second ballot they are free to vote for whom they like. It could take four or five rounds before Clinton or Obama get enough, with the odds going heavily to Clinton. But... Edwards. He will likely end up with 10% of the delegates and be in a position to decide who will get the nomination. That fits the Edwards profile too... king maker if the candidate does as he wishes which is to be the VP. Bet on a brokered or open convention. Bet on Clinton. Bet on it getting VERY ugly. Clintons negatives are going to get higher. No one has ever won the presidency with such high negatives. But, there haven't been open conventions in a hundred years either.