This is just in case you're a political junkie like I am, here is my "Mark S." analysis of the Primary Election process and how it might turn out.

Democrats:

This one is fairly simple. No form of calculations shows Obama getting enough votes to win the nomination at the convention. He may, however, keep Hillary from taking the nomination on the first ballot. It places John Edwards in the king-maker position. This is a 50-50 situation at the moment. I'd still bet on Clinton but if the Clinton's keep up their gnarly backroom antics and the Dem leaders finally have their fill, it could all backfire. The number is growing for Dem leaders who once supported the Clintons but have tired from their constant meanness, petulant behavior, and position-a-minute stances.

Independents:

Bloomberg has $1 billion he's willing to spend should Obama and Huckabee get their respective nominations. He won't enter the race if it is Rudy, McCain or Mitt vs. Hillary.

Republicans:

As I calculate it, as things are-- and this is strictly if the trends continue -- the final delegate count is likely to be the following given rosy projections for Romney and Huckabee, average weighting for McCain and negative weighting to Rudy:

Giuliani Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul

30% 26% 18% 22% 3% 3% of the delegates...

giving them the following delegates

Giuliani Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul 719 615 435 523 66 77 delegates.

I did figure that Thompson would indeed pull out but his delegates remain tied to him until the first ballot. I doubt any of the others will officially pull out although the Huckster has already ground his campaign to a dead crawl. He's out of money on has irritated too many Republicans with his "amend the constitution to be in line with God's law" kind of stuff. McCain gets my vote as the one who would drop out first (he won't) ... not sure why except I see the Huckster and Mitt as being more stubborn as well as having ulterior motives for other national leadership if a Republican wins.

In that no one will have even close to the 1191 delegates to win, the Republican Convention would end up as an "open" or "brokered" convention, first we've seen in 100 years. The delegates must vote for the candidate they committed to during the state election on the first ballot. Thereafter they may vote as they wish.

My open convention scenario wonders if Rudy and Huckster don't make a VP deal for the second ballot although Thompson has been working hard to be the VP and would be better. Not with McCain because it would be known as the Undertaker Ticket. How old can you go?

Regardless, I don't see Mitt able to make any deals with anyone with the possible exception of Thompson, but he'd likely go with Rudy first.

In other words, there is no winning gambit for Mitt, Huckster or Thompson... and frankly McCain is far more of a long shot than the media makes out. As his own mother says, he has little support from the base of the GPO.

Of course if any of the others dropped out after Feb 5, that will change some of the weighting but I don't see that being of particular help to Rudy unless it was McCain.

Who wins the general election??? Too much time until then. Most polls show a 5 point difference between either Hillary or Obama and whoever the Republican is. That's just too narrow for now.

Musings on Romney

I see my Musings on Romney that I sent to a few friends is now circulating around the Internet -- in fact my kids are getting people sending them this post... but of course they left my name off of it. So, for the record, here's the original sent Nov. 28, 2007:

I just returned from Washington, DC. Spoke with a top congressional policy advisor who is also LDS. He said the vast majority of GOP congressmen are endorsing Mitt. He thought a Mitt presidency was no longer improbable, but, it is now something that "could happen."

So... I wondered, if Mitt Romney became President of the US (code name POTUS) won't we have something we've never before -- a president who goes to a specific church? All other presidents belonged to religions that didn't have tight congregational boundaries. Now, think about that:

What Ward would POTUS be in?

If you are his new Bishop, here are your top 10 questions:

1. Will you allow an inaugural ball to be held in the cultural hall? Do you mount security cameras on top of each basketball rim and have a secret service detail stationed on the stage?

2. Can you call Mitt and Ann as the Nursery Leaders... even if you really feel inspired?

3. Who is going to home teach them? Will you call someone who needs activation but may not pass the vetting and national security screening?

4. If Harry Reid and Mitt Romney are in the same High Priest group, will you need to be there to keep order?

5. Exactly how will tithing settlement work? Will the Secretary of the Treasury come too?

6. Will you be inviting the new Romney family to speak in Sacrament Meeting... and if they go a little over at what point do you ask them to sit down?

7. Will the Secret Service do a sweep of the building before each meeting? And if the Romney's always leave before Sunday School, will the Sunday School president need to interview them? If they stay, where will you hold the class?

8. Can you call the Secret Service agents to help out in Primary?

9. If you give Mitt a calling and the two Democrats in the Ward raise their hand AGAINST sustaining him - partly out of habit - does the Supreme Court need to be involved?

10. If you can't give them a calling, and they don't attend very often (for presidential stuff) will that mean they're "inactive?" If they're not active, can you give them a Temple Recommend? And if you do, can they go? Will the Secret Service have to screen the temple too?

11. If the President wants to hold Sacrament Meeting at Camp David or the White House for security reasons, is that a conflict of Church and State?

If you're assigned to be the Romney's home teacher:

1. Can you just drop by, no appointment?

2. Can you even call them for an appointment or do you have to go through the Chief of Staff?

3. Can you bring by Christmas sweets and cookies? Will they be analyzed? And for how many people - family, secret service details?

4. If you don't come can the IRS do an audit on you?

5. Will they want to do a national security background check?

6. Do you have to have a permanent companion who has been vetted? Can you just grab any teacher or priest to come to you? And what if that priest has been a little wayward. Do you need to search him first?

7. Do you have to help him move in and out of the White House?

8. If Ann Romney gets sick, are you allowed to bring in meals or at least tell the Relief Society about it?

9. What can you share with the Bishop about the Romneys?

10. Do you have to ask them about their year's supply?

11. If you get a late night call for a blessing will reporters follow you around wanting to know what was wrong and what you said?

If Mitt Romney is assigned to be YOUR home teacher,

1. Is telling the group leader you haven't been home taught a national security breech?

2. If he wants to come at the end of the month, do you accept his reason "I've been out of town"?

3. Will he drop by unannounced or will the media crews give him away?

Analysis of Democrat Primary

I analyzed the Republicans, so I ought to do the Democrats. Actually, the Democrat primary selection is a bit easier since they have no "winner take all" primaries. Delegates are selected, for the most part, on the candidates percentage of popular vote. They do have super delegates, but, that aside here is how the race COULD turn out. In looking at all of the polls for each state John Edwards sees the writing on the wall: he has no chance of winning but, neither is the path to the nomination for Clinton or Obama a sure thing. Clinton has the easier road, but, she MUST consistently get more than 47% of the vote on average. That will be tough to do. If she gets 49% in New York and 43% from California and it see-saws back and forth like that in other states, she will NOT get the required 2025 delegates needed to win. That said, it doesn't appear Clinton will get more than 47% on average, but will fall 100 or so delegates short of the goal during the primaries. That means that just like the Republicans there will be a convention where no one gets the majority on the first ballot where the candidates are required to vote for the candidate they selected in the primary. On the second ballot they are free to vote for whom they like. It could take four or five rounds before Clinton or Obama get enough, with the odds going heavily to Clinton. But... Edwards. He will likely end up with 10% of the delegates and be in a position to decide who will get the nomination. That fits the Edwards profile too... king maker if the candidate does as he wishes which is to be the VP. Bet on a brokered or open convention. Bet on Clinton. Bet on it getting VERY ugly. Clintons negatives are going to get higher. No one has ever won the presidency with such high negatives. But, there haven't been open conventions in a hundred years either.

Republicans can determine Demo candidate

Here's an interesting thought. Republicans can actually decide who the Democratic nominee will be. In the following states the Democratic primary is "open" meaning anyone from any party can vote. Because the Republican convention is most likely to be OPEN, who you vote for in the Republican primary won't matter much. A 20% shift in delegates still won't sew the nomination up for any of the candidates. Therefore, to make a difference, vote in the Democratic primaries if you live in any of the following states and vote for Obama if you wish the Republicans to win the White House. He will be a much easier candidate to beat. I've listed the states in alpha sort with their delegates. If Clinton's percentage is kept below 47% she won't have enough delegates to win and the Dem convention will be open. That very process exhausts the money, weakening the Dems in the general election. It will also raise Clinton's negatives among the population as she lashes out against Obama. It will get even uglier. Here are the states that Republicans can vote in Democratic primaries: Alabama60 Arkansas47 California441 Georgia103 Hawaii29 Idaho23 Illinois185 Indiana84 Massachusetts121 Minnesota88 Mississippi40 Missouri88 Montana24 Nebraska31 New Jersey127 North Carolina134 North Dakota21 Ohio161 Rhode Island32 South Carolina54 Tennessee85 Texas228 Utah29 Vermont23 Virginia101 Washington97 West Virginia39 Wisconsin92 2587 Mark J. Stoddard